Donald Trump’s astonishingly gravity defying comeback has invoked a lot of questions. The outgoing presidency leaves behind a complex web of unresolved disputes and much room for Trump to reshape US foreign policy. Trump’s first presidency is being used as a marker for his forthcoming presidency or to say the least to analyse what the world can expect. Trump’s non-theological image in the political spectrum leaves little room for predictable prophecies before he takes over office.
The ‘liberal’ debate surrounding Donald Trump’s transactional approach towards European security has emboldened. In the past Trump raised questions about why American taxpayers should go on subsidizing the security of wealthy European countries that free ride on US protection. That further elicits questions that if Europe will contribute more towards its collective defense or Trump’s presidency will revive uncertainty over the future of NATO, which he threatened to quit during his first term in the White House.
Unlike the previous term, Trump’s current tenure stands to gain support from Big Tech firms who sought to rebuild bridges with tech and business friendly Trump after facing significant regulatory probes and anti-trust threats as a part of crackdown by Biden’s administration. The bigger question is will Trump’s friendly ties with Elon Musk or the business lobbies impact his big tariff barriers set for China where some of the American firms have invested heavily.
Trump’s return to presidency is expected to determine the fate of wars. Benjamin Netanyahu was among the first few leaders to congratulate Trump on his win. It is being perceived that Donald Trump’s win might be seen as a deterrent reducing the likelihood of major incidents, as Iran’s leadership fears increased pressure and sanctions. Trump who forged a close relationship with Israel when previously in office has expressed criticism of Netanyahu’s wartime leadership and has called for a timely end to the conflict. Netanyahu, in his congratulatory message stressed ‘your historic return to the White House offers a new beginning for America and a powerful recommitment to the great alliance between Israel & America’ indicating Israel’s expectation to secure greater US support in its security policy. Hamas simultaneously issued a statement urging US President elect Donald Trump’s incoming administration to ‘make stop the war’ in Gaza a priority.
Another major challenge for the Trump presidency right now is to find a peaceful resolution to end the Ukraine war. In the lead up to the election, Trump repeatedly said he could end the war within 24 hours. Trump’s two successive telephone calls before (in July 2024) and after the election (co attended by Elon Musk) raises two major questions – First, How far Trump will fulfil his pledge to “achieve just peace in Ukraine”. Second, what role Elon Musk will play in US foreign policy after Trump formally joins office. Meanwhile Russia maintained a flexible position not giving any clear answer about dispute resolution in Ukraine in the wake of Trump’s return to power. Putin exclaimed Trump’s comments “to help end the Ukrainian crisis…deserves attention at least”.
The real challenge for Trump even if he pushes through swift talks on Ukraine will be to broker a peace deal acceptable to both sides who have fought and resisted long enough to not agree to a ‘peace deal only based on sheer commitment to ‘peace, stability, and prosperity’. Moreover, any deal less favorable to Ukraine might give China a chance to drive a wedge between America and its treaty allies in Europe and Asia, telling them that American promises are worth nothing. Further as an added advantage China can sell it as an American template to Taiwan that can’t be trusted.
The scale of American strategic commitment to Taiwan under Trump is under watch. During the Presidential campaign Trump asserted that Taiwan should pay Americans to defend it and grumbled that the island’s world class semiconductor industry “took all of our chip business”.
Whether Trump would follow a hardline posture towards China resonating with his first presidency is yet to be seen and understood. During his last presidency the US presided over a raft of hawkish policies waging a mega trade war that pitted the world’s two biggest economies against each other. During the campaign, Trump promised to impose tariffs of 60% on all Chinese imports, which could affect $500bn worth of goods trade.
Another important front that is expected to draw renewed attention from Trump is South Asia. Trump during his recent interviews has repeatedly referred to Prime Narendra Modi as his ‘good friend’. While there is optimism about further strengthening India -US strategic partnership there are concerns about fine tuning ‘tariff’ negotiations in the domain of their bilateral ties. Meanwhile, emboldened trends of supply chain diversification under Trump might create more opportunities for India.
Further Trump’s statement shortly before the elections about the protection of religious minorities in Bangladesh in the wake of domestic political upheaval has opened possibilities about his plausible interest in taking a closer look at the internal political developments in Pakistan.
Trump’s return to power has pushed the world to prepare for a ‘new world order’. In Washington, it is often said personnel is policy. To a large extent who gets to team up within the Trump-Vance circle will determine the direction US foreign policy takes here onwards. While America has chosen ‘America First’ for itself it will be interesting to see how ‘America First’ reshapes the world for better.
Author:
Angana Guha Roy,
Visiting Fellow,
Red lantern Analytica
