Strategic Dialogue Examining Shifting Power Dynamics in the Indo-Pacific
Red Lantern Analytica, in collaboration with Hegemoniq, convened a strategic dialogue on “Strategic Shifts in the Indo-Pacific: Connectivity, Coalitions and Great Power Competition” on 14th March 2026 (Saturday). The discussion brought together distinguished experts to examine the evolving geopolitical architecture of the Indo-Pacific and the implications of growing strategic competition, emerging partnerships, and regional security dynamics.
The panel featured Col. Nalin Herath RSP (Retd.) , Amb. Tom Armbruster (Retd.) , Dr. Dattesh Parulekar, and Dr. Rahul Mishra, each offering perspectives on how regional states and major powers are navigating the rapidly changing strategic environment.
Speaking from a Sri Lankan perspective, Col. Nalin Herath RSP (Retd.), Amry Veteran & Former Military Spokesperson, Sri Lanka, highlighted the growing importance of the Indian Ocean within the broader Indo-Pacific framework. He emphasized Sri Lanka’s strategic location along critical maritime trade routes connecting East Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe. This positioning provides both opportunities and challenges for smaller states. While infrastructure development and connectivity initiatives—particularly port development and maritime logistics—offer avenues for economic growth, they also place Sri Lanka at the intersection of competing geopolitical interests. Col. Herath stressed the importance of balanced diplomacy and Sri Lanka’s traditional policy of non-alignment in navigating great power competition. Maintaining neutrality while engaging multiple partners, he noted, remains essential for ensuring stability and safeguarding national interests.
Amb. Tom Armbruster (Retd.), Former US Ambassador to Marshall Islands focused on the role of Pacific Island states within the Indo-Pacific strategic landscape. He challenged the conventional perception of these countries as “small island states,” noting that they instead consider themselves “large ocean countries” due to their vast maritime territories. Despite relatively small populations, these nations wield significant diplomatic influence, particularly in global forums such as the United Nations. Amb. Armbruster highlighted that the primary concerns of Pacific Island states are not great power rivalry but rather climate change, sea-level rise, disaster preparedness, and sustainable development. He also pointed to the growing competition between the United States and China in the Pacific region, while emphasizing that meaningful engagement with island states must prioritize development partnerships, environmental resilience, and long-term economic cooperation.
Dr. Dattesh Parulekar, Assistant Professor, School of International & Area Studies, Goa University examined China’s evolving maritime strategy and its impact on Southeast Asia, particularly in the South China Sea. He traced the evolution of China’s maritime ambitions from its 2012 declaration to become a maritime power to its current efforts to assert comprehensive national power in its near seas. Dr. Parulekar argued that China is attempting to redefine maritime norms by combining military capabilities with industrial, technological, and economic instruments. Through infrastructure projects, maritime development initiatives, and blue economy frameworks, Beijing is reshaping regional connectivity and strategic influence. At the same time, Southeast Asian states are adopting different strategies to manage China’s rise. Countries such as Vietnam pursue proactive balancing, Indonesia follows a calibrated approach combining economic engagement with strategic caution, while the Philippines has taken a more assertive stance in defending its maritime claims. These diverse responses illustrate the complex regional dynamics shaping the South China Sea.
Providing a broader geopolitical assessment, Dr. Rahul Mishra, Associate Professor, Centre for Indo-Pacific Studies, SIS, JNU, discussed the structural shifts taking place within the Indo-Pacific order. He noted that the Indo-Pacific has firmly emerged as a central theater of global geopolitics, reflecting the growing strategic convergence between the Indian and Pacific Oceans. China’s rise as a revisionist power, he argued, has compelled many countries to reconsider their strategic alignments. This has contributed to the rise of flexible partnerships and minilateral groupings such as the Quad, which seek to address regional challenges ranging from maritime security to supply chain resilience.Dr. Mishra also emphasized that recent global crises—including conflicts in Europe and West Asia—demonstrate that the Indo-Pacific cannot be viewed as an isolated strategic space. Developments in other regions continue to influence the balance of power and security dynamics within the Indo-Pacific. In this context, he highlighted India’s approach of strategic autonomy and multi-alignment as a pragmatic framework for navigating complex geopolitical realities while maintaining constructive partnerships across multiple regions.
The dialogue underscored that the Indo-Pacific is undergoing a profound transformation driven by shifting power balances, new connectivity initiatives, and evolving security partnerships. As the region becomes increasingly central to global politics, experts emphasized the need for sustained dialogue, cooperative frameworks, and balanced strategies to ensure stability, economic development, and a rules-based regional order.
